The Truth about Resources. This time with statistics.

[Pothos]

That is correct! Though it has been said time after time, that if you just limited yourself, you could make much much more in resources, It still is not listened to!

So, While walking through the.. lands that I am walking through. I looked at the herbs left. There are 2 out of 25 herbs. I don't understand why, but there is. So tomorrow if ungathered, there will be 3, then 4, then 6, then 9, and so on. But that's only if it goes ungathered.

Now, I am bored so.. Let's do some number crunching.

Lets take two men. Lets call the first man Bob. everyone likes Bob right? Good.
Lets call the second man Eon. (Sorry Eon, But people are annoyed at you, making your name, perfect for this situation.)

Now Each of these two men have a herb basket that they get to keep for a week, and a herb garden with 25 max herbs. Lets say for this argument, that only they can get to their gardens, so only they harvest from their own.

Now, our good freind Bob ariives on day 1, and he picks 9 herbs. Eon also arrives, but he picks 23.

So, total Score for day one?
Bob: 9
Eon 23

Tempting isn't it? in one day you get 23 herbs, a motherload, good for a few batches of tea. But lets keep going.

End of day one.
Bob's garden: 16/25 herbs.
Eon's garden: 2/25 herbs.

Start day two, increase resources by 50% current value.
Bob's Garden: 24/25
Eon's Garden: 3/25

So! Bob's garden seems almost pristine, while Eon's looks like it's been trampled by a herd of elephants followed by a half dozen drunk chikens.

They each gather the newly respawned resources, leaving their gardens as they had the day before.

Total Herb score
Bob: 17
Eon: 24

So, as you can clearly see, on the two days scale, Eon is the superior in every way, because he has the most resources.

Day three. increase counters by 50% current, Bob's is still pretty. Maybe he has even taken some time to trim in decorative ways. Eon's still looks like a highway after a twenty car pileup.

Day three herb score:
Bob: 25
Eon: 25

As you can see.. Day three is the break even point. Clearly there is no difference in the methods of gathering, even if Eon had gathered every one at the very begining, it would still take 3 days for Bob to catch up. Obvoisly Eon is the savy timesaver.

Day four: Bob's garden: Eden. Eon's garden: post apocolytic hellhole.

Day four Herb scores:
Bob: 34
Eon: 26

At this point, It's pretty clear. Eon's stratagey, is a loss. While in the short term he has gathered more resources, patience has shown to be the better plan.

Day five: Bob: rainforest. Eon: Scrubland.
Scores:
Bob: 42
Eon: 27

Day six. Bob: Pleasent scenery. Eon: Horror film.
Scores:
Bob: 50
Eon: 28

Days seven. Bob: Tropical vacation. Eon: forced labor camp.
Scores:
Bob: 58
Eon: 29. But in a final act to gain more, Eon has riped up everything, bringing his total up to 31.

[b]End result[/b]

[b]Bob's Garden: 16/25 herbs, having yielded 58 total over seven days.[/b]
[b]Eon's Garden: 0/25 herbs, having yielded 31total over seven days.[/b]

[b]Projected over a 30 day period:[/b]
[b]Bob: 16/25 herbs, having yielded 241 total over Thirty days.[/b]
[b]Eon: 0/25 Herbs, having yielded 54 total over Thirty days.[/b]

Now. I understand, Other people come along and gather too. Chances are, the people who take everything actualy number fewer than the rest of us. But with some hope, People will look at this and say 'Hey, maybe if I only gather from one spot, and do it smart, I'll be able to get lots more resources than normal. Oh and hey! If I only gather from one spot, the others with the same tool might do the same!'

Niave yes, But realy.. Think about it. Pick a single spot nobody else has, gather only from there, and everybody will end up with more resources than normal.

[Metal Bunny]

Collective action problem; there is no incentive to wait, as there is no guarantee that it will be there next time, as everyone has free access.

[Pipstickz]

Then we should start keeping better track of who takes what, when, and post it here, on the forums. Perhaps some (the smart ones) might even stop before we get lists going.

[Brulant]

We've been discussing (complaining about) this for quite some time now.
MoM [url="http://magicduel.invisionzone.com/topic/10608-resource-depletion/page__p__92112#entry92112"]had a topic in mid September[/url] about managing the resource depletion.
So, I'll say the same thing now as I said back then.



[quote name='Brulant' timestamp='1316299736' post='92155']
I like this idea, so I'll make a suggestion.

When you have your list of everyone who agrees to this rule, MoM, why not create a dynamic gathering schedule?

Pros:
1) Everyone who has a gathering tool that week, regardless of when they are awake and able to play, will be able to gather the maximum amount of the resource that is deemed 'fair'.
2) It's easy to see who breaks the schedule if you have a schedule.
3) Everyone will begin to accumulate resources which will drop the prices of resources overall and encourage economic movement in MD… but that's an entire topic on its own.
4) It's more 'fair' for everyone.

Cons:
1) You're still going to have to figure out what to do with the people who refuse to agree to the overall rule.
2) It takes a lot of work to make a good schedule.
3) People might be inclined to break the schedule, but, see Pro 3.
4) Who decides what 'fair' is?

Just my two cents.
[/quote]

So, if it's so important to everyone let's show some initiative and get some lists started.
This week, starting on Day 297:
Brulant id: 207201 -- Independent Dowsing Tool
I agree to never deplete resources and to abide by any guidelines that the community deems as fair.

Edited October 25, 2011 by Brulant

[awiiya]

The reason this doesn't, and hasn't, held true is that there is a separation between Community good and Individual good. In the example you gave, since Bob and Eon drew exclusively from their own gardens, Community good and Individual good were the same. Eon clearly lost, because he did not choose the way to best maximize Individual good.

Let's fight statistics with statistics.

One garden. Two pickers. Whoever has the most herbs wins.

Day 1: Eon arrives at the garden first and picks 23. Bob picks none, thinking there will be more tomorrow.
Day 2: Eon, due to timezones or activity, picks another. Bob waits.
Etc. In the end we can all see that Eon wins, because he picks first, even though his pick each day is measly compared to what they could be getting collectively.

Community good would be defined as the total output of herbs into the community, no matter the picker. But few people actually care about that. Let's take another scenario:

Bob and Eon agree to pick responsibly, with the rule that they cannot pick more than 2/3 of the herbs each day.

A garden of size 25.

Day 1: Eon picks 8. Bob has agreed to not pick below 2/3, and picks none.
Day 2: Eon picks 8. Bob has agreed to not pick below 2/3, and picks none.
etc.

Though in this scenario the Community good is vastly improved, Bob still gets no herbs. How sad. Eon still wins, and by an even greater margin.

So you can see then how Bob would be motivated to pick MORE than 2/3. And in response, Eon would too. And we'd be back to the original competing scenario, now with a bit of backstabbing grudge thrown into the mixture.

As you can see, it matters little to Bob how much the community as a whole gets in terms of herbs. He's simply not getting any, and human instinct is to serve the most personal needs before considering broader and more theoretical ones.

You could of course argue that they should each pick 4, and in theory this works well. Community and individual good are maximized and fairly distributed. But how long until the baskets reset and someone who might not be part of this wonderful cooperation takes the basket and upsets the balance? It's mightily unstable. And besides, why would Eon do that? If he's fast enough, he could ensure that he always wins, and with time not seeming to be of much importance in MD, wait around ad infinitum, and always have a monopoly on herbs. With that he could charge as much as he wants - even 32 times the amount that they should be valued at. So if he gets one herb every four days, but sells it at 32 silver, that's the same net money as selling 8 herbs every day for one silver each. And with limited supply, he's more likely to maintain that price of 32, and may even raise it as needs rises. There's a reason that monopoly and money are so close.

So yes, I agree with Pip. The answer is one-of-two-or-both: you have the more practical solution of community rules and guidelines, in which those who over-use are punished socially, or the more hopeful scenario where people simply agree to all cooperate (because it works like that right...? remember item pooling? dojos? altruism has a bad track record). Pothos seems to expect the second solution to simply organically occur, based on a single scenario which poorly models the true situation.

I don't mean to criticize or debase you completely, but I think we should be focusing on identifying the exploiting community members and think of a fitting punishment. That process would be much expedited with the institution of a Harvest Log, similar to the Trade Logs. And it would generate revenue for MD, since people would have to buy the item from the Md store...

Awi

[xrieg]

[quote name='awiiya' timestamp='1319515665' post='94588']
I think we should be focusing on identifying the exploiting community members and think of a fitting punishment. That process would be much expedited with the institution of a Harvest Log, similar to the Trade Logs.
[/quote]
There is a lot of herbs location in MD easy to reach. If they were harvested responsible they would be enough to provide decent harvest for about everybody interested. Still, as Awiiya pointed out, when somebody comes just a few hours before regen, they are unlikely to harvest any herbs (currently even after a few hours there are baskets left, they would be in higher demand if there was a chance to harvest)

I talked to a few depletors and they invariably say 'if I do not somebody else will' - and they point out location they never deplete that are always below 2/xx. That lands do not care/ have no means to track/ punish depletors of their resources also does not help.

I like the idea of logs - or maybe even better harvest message in chat (I believe the idea was raised before) just like item transfer message. Still, I do not see fitting penalty that would work as I do not think enough ppl would follow any community proposed ruling. Some will be discouraged by the disclosure risk I guess - so I support the idea and will try to track depletors.

Another solution to provide better acces to herbs to everybody would be to make the tool cooldown significantly longer.

My personal pledge: I never (well, I depleted 2 NML herbs in anger once... no more - prefer to be whiner eather than hypocrite) harvest resources below optimum (maximum next day regrow).

Edited October 25, 2011 by xrieg

[Pipstickz]

The need for Mur in all this is fine, but what have we done to deserve it? We don't necessarily need Mur to watch over the resources, we just need somebody standing there, keeping track of who comes and goes, and when the resources go down.

[Udgard]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma

I've campaigned against resource depleting long before resources were made shared (which means there's much, much less people to "worry about"), yet it did not work. I've simply lost hope that this would work now that people have the whole realm as competitors.

[Pothos]

MI noticed that you came back to the depleter, instead of just someone who over harvests.. Perhaps the solution to that would be to have a scene grab the name of whoever depleted a resource, and keep it in plain veiw till at least one whole unit is back. That would either improve things a -minor- amount with no-body harvesting the last resource, or it would let us keep track, and punish, the offenders.

For instance. If we see Eon (again sorry Eon, but you are the name being used.) is going around and gathering the herbs to depletion, we could choose not to pay his 32 silver per. In fact, any monopoly is possible to tople just by sayng 'No, I refuse to pay that much.' Thus making it a case of Eon lowering his price, or wasting his time gathering an ever increasing amount of herbs that he can't be rid of.

[Paracelsus]

Maybe the citizens of each land could protect their land resources by using these lands cleansers, i mean if they join forces and decide to protect their herbs resources they could kick out the ones depleting...

[Maebius]

[quote name='Paracelsus' timestamp='1319554720' post='94614']
Maybe the citizens of each land could protect their land resources by using these lands cleansers, i mean if they join forces and decide to protect their herbs resources they could kick out the ones depleting...
[/quote]
The concern always comes back to not knowing who depletes things, as without posting someone active and monitoring the resources hourly, it is very difficult to determine who it was, if lots of people pass through a particular scene.

[Amoran Kalamanira Kol]

Personally I feel that this problem will continue until the tools for the lands are distributed in a different but similar way, or if Kings of the lands are actually given the power and ability they need to control the distribution of resources for their specific lands. In Loreroot the herbs are continuously at 0 - depleted. When one or two grows, they are immediately gathered by someone. Yet, kings cannot make laws regarding the use of resources or tools, nor do they have any way to control the distribution of the herbs, so the more public land's resources are nearly always going to be depleted.

I would like to know why the kings are not allowed to make rules regarding the resources for the land that they govern, because I consider it an abuse of privilages- of resources and of resource gathering tools- that this kind of thing is allowed to continue.

If you speak to the kings, you may find that many of them hold similar concerns.

[Chewett]

[quote name='Amoran Kalamanira Kol' timestamp='1319600972' post='94649']
Personally I feel that this problem will continue until the tools for the lands are distributed in a different but similar way, or if Kings of the lands are actually given the power and ability they need to control the distribution of resources for their specific lands. In Loreroot the herbs are continuously at 0 - depleted. When one or two grows, they are immediately gathered by someone. Yet, kings cannot make laws regarding the use of resources or tools, nor do they have any way to control the distribution of the herbs, so the more public land's resources are nearly always going to be depleted.

I would like to know why the kings are not allowed to make rules regarding the resources for the land that they govern, because I consider it an abuse of privilages- of resources and of resource gathering tools- that this kind of thing is allowed to continue.

If you speak to the kings, you may find that many of them hold similar concerns.
[/quote]

Ann. 1984 - [2011-08-16 07:12:27 - Stage 10]
Land leaders are requested not to interfere with the shared tools by placing any land laws to govern their use. The tools are meant to be grabbed by anyone regardless of land and [b]further changes to the way they will be available are still pending. It is too soon to have any land specific regulations regarding shared tools.[/b]

I believe that would answer your question? Because the way this is written, it looks like there will be allowed land specific regulations, just not yet.

[Pothos]

[quote name='Amoran Kalamanira Kol' timestamp='1319600972' post='94649']

I would like to know why the kings are not allowed to make rules regarding the resources for the land that they govern, because I consider it an abuse of privilages- of resources and of resource gathering tools- that this kind of thing is allowed to continue.

[/quote]
If I may point you towards A certain king of an Island land, who has stated very clearly that the tools in his land are -not- to be lent to any Necrovion citizens, period.
That's why they arn't allowed to in my opinion.

Now, if I also may point out my idea to have a scene grab the name of the one who depleted a present resource.
With that, a King could find all the offenders by simply taking a stroll through their land and making a note. That also means that they could punish those who broke the rules -in the depletion of a resource-.

[Passant the Weak]

[quote name='Pothos' timestamp='1319639864' post='94693']
Now, if I also may point out my idea to have a scene grab the name of the one who depleted a present resource.
With that, a King could find all the offenders by simply taking a stroll through their land and making a note. That also means that they could punish those who broke the rules -in the depletion of a resource-.
[/quote]
If you want such thing, I would suggest that you ask for posting the name of anyone harvesting a ressource. Because even supposing that your suggestion is dissuavive enough, you would have all locations left with 1 single ressource. And then people will ask for them to be left with 2/3 of their max capacity...

Put the name of everyone harvesting in the chat and you can do what you want with it... but it could be done also by community/land effort to monitor manually what's happening. Not very hard to do but requires some (quite a lot) effort.
I just tested yesterday in 2 NML locations, and I could give a list of 2 potential names of herbs depleters. I had no time to check more, but with a bit of organisation the depleter would have been identified with a 100% probablity.

Whether the community/lands really want to do that depends on how they value ressource availability vs their own time/effort.