Number "guessing"

[Nex]

some/most might know this kind of game already, but i'm curious what the result will be in MD:

you can choose a number between 0 and 100.
winner will be the person who is closest to 2/3 of the average.

an example:
4 people guess 23, 42, 53 and 80. average is 49,5.
2/3 of 49,5 are 33. closest to 33 is 42, so 42 wins.

please send me your guess via forum PM.
experiment will run for a week, the winner will receive 3 silver coins.

[i]obviously 1 guess per person, no alts, no collusive guesses[/i]

happy "guessing"

cheers, V

Edited February 24, 2010 by Nex

[apophys]

The result will be everyone waiting 'til the last moment to guess.

[ladytwin]

*grins wicked* i will start this

66

[Aelis]

I agree with apophys, but maybe this is want you want to experiment.

You could make it hidden, like having we guess numbers then the result would be x/y of the average, and you choose values for x and y when the whole thing ends.

Oh, and my guess is 41!


~Aelis

[apophys]

^ That would be akin to simply picking a winner.

[Nex]

[size="4"]please send me your guesses via forum PM only[/size].

else apophys would be obviously right in that the person to guess last would win

Edited February 24, 2010 by Nex

[Jester]

33

[Nex]

of course ladytwin, aelis and jester are free to pick another number should they desire so (or the same, who would know) and send it via forum PM.

[Kafuuka]

[quote name='ladytwin' date='24 February 2010 - 07:53 PM' timestamp='1267037635' post='55101']
*grins wicked* i will start this

66
[/quote]
lmao, that's wrong for so many reasons

[Yoshi]

[quote name='Kafuuka' date='24 February 2010 - 02:44 PM' timestamp='1267040658' post='55111']
lmao, that's wrong for so many reasons
[/quote]

Well, it very well could be right. I'm not going to go into the logic of it, but with similar brain teasers, it's possible for most every number to be correct.

[Chewett]

[quote name='Yoshi' date='24 February 2010 - 07:47 PM' timestamp='1267040870' post='55112']
Well, it very well could be right. I'm not going to go into the logic of it, but with similar brain teasers, it's possible for most every number to be correct.
[/quote]

Actially, its not possible for EVERY number to be correct,

Here is a little tip, If EVERYONE choses 100, 2/3 will be 66, so pick lower than that number unless you think everyone will pick 100

[Guest Kyū]

35

[Nex]

again, please do [b][size="3"]not[/size][/b] post your number in this topic, but send it by forum PM.

part of the game is to guess what the others might have guessed and choose accordingly.

Edited February 24, 2010 by Nex

[Grido]

seriously, you've said that like 3 times now, people cant read

what does happen if more than one person gets the closest number?

[Nex]

in this case: split pot, rounded up.

not the most sophisticated solution, but one born from a realistic estimation of my silver supplies

[Nex]

so far, the result is rather surprising i might say
the experiment will run a little longer, approximately another week, due to me not immediately having internet in the new apartement. feel free to send your guesses via forum PM during that time, i'll check in as soon as possible.

offically on MD withdrawal from tomorrow on
cheers, V

[Eagle Eye]

43

[cutler121]

So should this be bumped since Nex never followed through and finished with a summary of the results?

Cutler

[Eagle Eye]

Thank you:)) Cutler

[Nex]

hey all, the estimated 2 weeks max for getting internet in my new appartement turned into 2 months, sorry for the unsuspectedly long wait. i see some have been quite annoyed how long it took - imagine how i've felt

anyway, after returning from my 'MD abstinence' i finally present the results:


32 people took part
total number of all guesses is 992
the average thereof is 31
2/3 of the average are 20,6

as for the guesses:
there have been a couple of very optimistic guessers going for 2 - 18 (mathematicans/ physicists?), most guessed in the 20 - 30's, surprisingly many guessed in the mid 40 - 60's and a few even went for impossible numbers to mess with our math


the closest number (21) was guessed by 4 (!!!) players. that's 12,5% of all guesses and the highest result (that did not end in the equilibrium of 0) i ever experienced.

thanks for participating everyone and congratz to the winners!





the winners are:
cutler, juntaozhu15, apophys, Dmik

you'll get your prize as soon as i find you in-game.

cheers, V

[Yoshi]

Sweet!!! Welcome back!

Question, could you post everyone's guesses?

[apophys]

w00t!

You can normally find me idling at the GGG.


I agree with Yoshi; could you post the guesses? Anonymously, of course.

[Nex]

sure, here it goes:

13, 21, 31, 56, 28, 27, 21, 43, 18, 13, 32, 25, 25, 73, 67, 2, 50, 22, 50, 21, 42, 56, 15, 11, 23, 34, 41, 21, 31, 32, 15, 33

[Kafuuka]

[quote name='Nex' date='05 May 2010 - 07:02 PM' timestamp='1273078971' post='59450']
as for the guesses:
there have been a couple of very optimistic guessers going for 2 - 18 (mathematicans/ physicists?), most guessed in the 20 - 30's, surprisingly many guessed in the mid 40 - 60's and a few even went for impossible numbers to mess with our math
[/quote]
A true mathematician should've guessed zero. It's the only number that is correct if everybody voted logically.

[Burns]

Why would a mathmatician do that if he thinks he's surrounded by dummies?

This is not a game of 'how logical am i' but rather 'how logical do i think the others as a group could be'...

Btw, my vote was over 30... Considered that possible, since the outcome in my statistics-course was well over ten, too, and we all knew about the Nash Equilibrium... LOL